Important Election for SPÖ and Greens in Burgenland
While the former is about one of the three state premiers, the latter could be kicked out of the state parliament. The FPÖ is hoping for further government participation, for the ÖVP, after the events at the federal level, it is an "uphill election campaign", political consultant Thomas Hofer told APA. The federal NEOS can be more relaxed despite a threatened non-entry.
Majority against SPÖ after Burgenland election?
For the SPÖ, the goal is to keep state premier Hans Peter Doskozil in Burgenland. The first place is probably safe for them, but they still have to hope to achieve at least 18 mandates. In the event that the Greens, NEOS and Liste Hausverstand do not make it and the state parliament thus only consists of SPÖ, FPÖ and ÖVP, there would be the possibility of a majority against them with fewer SPÖ mandates. In such a constellation, a government cooperation of FPÖ and ÖVP is not unlikely. Because taking away a state premier seat from the SPÖ would be tempting, Hofer said.
Such a case would probably bring a smile and a tear to SPÖ leader Andreas Babler, Hofer said - with the latter dominating. Because a state government bypassing Babler critic Doskozil would ultimately also mean the loss of one of the three state premiers and weaken the SPÖ nationwide. While Michael Ludwig will probably still be firmly in the saddle after this year's Vienna City Council election, this is not so certain at the next election in SPÖ-led Carinthia in 2028, according to Hofer.
Burgenland already with Red-Blue since 2015
After the negotiations for a three-party coalition at the federal level burst, Doskozil's chances of preventing blue-black are higher than before. The Burgenland SPÖ leader had spoken out against a government participation of his party at the federal level after a disappointing result in the National Council election. In this case, an SPÖ-FPÖ coalition in Burgenland would be more likely than one between SPÖ and ÖVP, said Hofer, as there is no common basis between the Social Democrats and the People's Party. Red-Blue would then also not cause a big outcry within the federal SPÖ. While the Social Democrats exclude cooperation with the FPÖ at the federal level, this variant was already in Burgenland from 2015 to 2020.
Within the FPÖ, due to the nationwide upswing, there is an expectation to enter the state government and, in the best case, to provide the governor. However, failing to achieve this would not be a "big problem" for the party, Hofer said. In any case, it can expect strong gains - in the last Burgenland election after the Ibiza affair, the FPÖ was at 9.8 percent. FPÖ top candidate Norbert Hofer could poach heavily in the ÖVP area.
What can ÖVP, Greens and NEOS achieve?
The ÖVP, on the other hand, must hope that its regional anchoring will raise the election result to a tolerable level. A repeat of second place is rather unlikely according to the political advisor. The current negotiations with FPÖ boss Herbert Kickl at the federal level, against which high-ranking ÖVP officials have repeatedly spoken out, would not "push the ÖVP forward", Hofer believes. Top candidate Christian Sagartz also has a recognition problem compared to Doskozil and FPÖ top candidate Norbert Hofer. A poor result in Burgenland could reinforce the impression within the ÖVP that elections are not going well for them at the moment - and that they cannot afford new federal elections. If, on the other hand, there is a blue-black in Burgenland, this would probably not harm the negotiations at the federal level.
The election is important for the Greens, who must hope for damage limitation and entry into the state parliament. They had to accept not only the loss of votes but also of several participations in state governments in the past elections. In Burgenland, they could be further weakened by falling out of the state parliament altogether. Hofer does not believe that a non-entry of the NEOS, who have not been represented in the state parliament so far, would hit the federal party hard. After all, there are hardly any urban areas in Burgenland where the NEOS can otherwise score points.
(APA/Red)
This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.