FPÖ's Catch-Up: Blue Record Result Expected at Burgenland Election
Today's state election in Burgenland could bring unusually large shifts in the balance of power between the parties. Especially for the ÖVP and FPÖ, new records are expected: The FPÖ is looking at a historic increase and for the first time the second place in the easternmost federal state, while the ÖVP is facing another historic election defeat after the state elections in Styria and Vorarlberg and for the first time rank three. The absolute majority achieved by the SPÖ in 2020 is shaky.
So Far, No Double-Digit Changes in Any Burgenland State Election
The shifts in Burgenland have always been relatively moderate in the state elections of the Second Republic. Although there has been a change of power once - in 1964 the SPÖ ousted the ÖVP from first place and the governor's seat - but never has a party lost or gained a double-digit share of the vote. The largest upward movement in the parties' share of the vote was at the last election in 2020 for the SPÖ, which gained 8.02 percentage points. The biggest loss so far was the loss of 6.88 percentage points by the FPÖ in the 2005 state election. This makes Burgenland the only federal state in which there have been no double-digit changes in any state election.
FPÖ Could Set a New Record
In this election, larger shifts are expected especially for the ÖVP and FPÖ. The FPÖ is likely to significantly exceed its previous largest increase (+6.06 percentage points in 2015) and set a new record. The best blue election result so far was the 15.04 percent achieved in 2015. The ÖVP, on the other hand, is facing a historic election defeat. The worst result of the People's Party so far was 29.08 percent in 2015. It would also be a record low if the ÖVP received less than 25.05 percent of the votes. The biggest loss so far was minus 5.53 percentage points in 2015.
SPÖ Also Expected to Suffer Losses in Burgenland Election
For the SPÖ, which also has to expect losses in the state election, new records are unlikely. However, things would have to go extremely badly for the state's leading party to perform worse than its historically worst result of 40.43 percent in 1949. For a new record low (currently: -6.34 percentage points/2015), the Reds would have to slip below 43.6 percent of the vote.
(APA/Red)
This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.