NEOS, ÖVP and Greens Compete for Vice Mayor's Seat in Vienna Election

In the three-way battle between NEOS, ÖVP, and the Greens for the vice-mayor's seat, NEOS currently have the best cards, the Greens the worst, and a change at the top could help the ÖVP. If the small parties fail to enter the municipal council in the Vienna election, political scientist Peter Filzmaier sees good chances for the SPÖ, according to APA, that a numerical majority of mandates could be achieved together with all three parties.

Vienna Election: Battle for Third Place "Rather Symbolically Important"

The SPÖ would need to achieve around 40 percent of the votes (2020: 41.62), and even a result slightly below that would probably suffice. The question of who captures third place is "rather symbolically important." After all, it is about who will become the red coalition partner in the future. For the parties, this can indeed represent a strategic dilemma in the election campaign. For example, the issue of the Lobau tunnel helps the Greens in the election campaign, but it is a hindrance in coalition formation, says Filzmaier. The FPÖ is predicted to make significant gains - also because they come from "political oblivion" with 7.11 percent after the last election, says political advisor Thomas Hofer. However, even with a quite realistic tripling of the vote share, the Blues under Dominik Nepp would remain far below the potential of more than 30 percent exploited by Heinz-Christian Strache in 2015, says Hofer.

Since Ludwig excludes a coalition with the Freedom Party, there will be no political power gain, which makes mobilization difficult, says Filzmaier. Unlike ten years ago, it is not possible this time to stage a race for first place due to the large gap to the SPÖ. For the same reason, the biggest challenge for the SPÖ also lies in mobilization, the experts agree. The mayor speculated on the "friction" of a blue-black government at the federal level when bringing forward the election date. Despite the failure of the FPÖ-ÖVP coalition negotiations, the earlier election date suits Ludwig because the effects of budget consolidation will likely be more noticeable in the fall. The SPÖ also avoids a possible climate debate, which would play into the hands of the Greens, by holding the election before the summer, says Hofer.

Battle for Vice-Mayor's Seat: NEOS in the Pole Position

Regarding coalition formation, experts see NEOS in the pole position, should it again suffice for a majority of mandates with the SPÖ. The election campaign is difficult for the Pinks due to the short-term switch of top candidate Christoph Wiederkehr to the federal government. Due to the unfamiliarity of the substitute top candidate, one must rely on the party brand, says Filzmaier. Given the modest result in the last election (7.47), one can hope for gains. The ÖVP behaves in the election campaign somewhere between damage control and "close your eyes and get through it," says Filzmaier, given the expected losses. To be considered as a coalition partner, however, something would have to change at the top after the election, both experts believe. The risk would be too great for Ludwig to bring the ÖVP leader Karl Mahrer, who is accused of breach of trust in the Wienwert case, into the government as a partner. The red-green government period of Ludwig with the then Green Vice-Mayor Birgit Hebein still has an effect on the Greens. The rejection of the Lobau tunnel is another obstacle to cooperation with the SPÖ.

Vienna Election: KPÖ "Should Not Be Underestimated"

If the KPÖ manages to enter the municipal council, it would complicate coalition possibilities. A pointedly left opposition in the town hall would also be unpleasant for the Reds, says Hofer. Even if the Viennese Communists are not as well positioned as in Salzburg or Graz, "they should not be underestimated," says the political advisor. However, the five percent hurdle is a very high entry barrier. A good news for the Social Democrats is that the Beer Party is not running. If party founder Dominik Wlazny had kept his hands off the national council election, where he "ruined" himself, he would have had quite a chance in the Vienna election, according to Hofer. Both experts, however, give the list of ex-FPÖ leader Heinz Christian Strache little chance.

(APA/Red)

This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.