First Projection and Forecast for the Vienna Election 2025

The SPÖ clearly defended its first place in the Vienna election on Sunday according to an updated projection.

Updated Projection for the Vienna Election 2025

According to the calculation at 8:00 PM, the SPÖ is expected to reach 39.4 percent of the votes, with a decrease of 2.2 percentage points. The FPÖ takes second place (20.4 percent), nearly tripling their share of the vote. The Greens can almost maintain their share with 14.6 percent. It is close between NEOS (9.8) and the ÖVP (9.6).

According to this projection by the Foresight Institute for APA and ORF (counting level 74.4 percent), the KPÖ failed with 4.1 percent and the Team Strache with 1.1 percent. Thus, both lists missed the five-percent hurdle and therefore entry into the municipal council. The projection has a margin of fluctuation of +/-0.7 percentage points. The match between NEOS and ÖVP for fourth place remains unclear for the time being - this question might only be clarified on Monday after the remaining postal votes are presented, according to the forecasters from Foresight.

Massive Losses for ÖVP

With this data, the SPÖ would lose only slightly compared to the last Vienna municipal council election in 2020 (result: 41.6 percent). The FPÖ, which had massively plummeted at that time due to the Ibiza scandal, can significantly increase from the meager 7.1 percent (+13.2).

The Greens remained virtually unchanged compared to 2020 (previous result: 14.8 percent and third place). The ÖVP suffers massive losses of minus 10.8 percentage points (2020: 20.4). The NEOS record a plus of 2.3 points (2020: 7.5 percent).

First Projection for the Vienna Election 2025

The SPÖ clearly defended the first place in the Vienna election on Sunday according to the first projection by the Foresight Institute for APA and ORF, with slight losses.

According to the calculation at 6:45 PM, the SPÖ is likely to receive 39.3 percent of the votes, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points. The FPÖ takes second place (20.5 percent), nearly tripling their share of the votes. Behind them are the Greens (14.7), followed closely by ÖVP and NEOS with 9.6 percent each.

According to this projection (counting level 13.4 percent), the KPÖ with 4.2 percent and the Team Strache (1.1 percent) are likely to have failed. Thus, both lists would miss the five-percent hurdle and therefore entry into the municipal council.

The first projection has a margin of error of +/-1.8 percentage points. Therefore, the KPÖ might still surpass the five-percent hurdle.

NEOS, Greens, and ÖVP as Possible Coalition Partners for Ludwig

According to this projection, the SPÖ would have a majority with 43 mandates with the previous coalition partner NEOS (10 mandates). A collaboration would also be possible with the ÖVP, which also comes to ten mandates - or with the Greens (with 15 of the total 100 seats in the city parliament) - and also with the FPÖ (22 seats), which is not an option for the SPÖ.

Waiting for District Results

In addition to the composition of the state parliament and municipal council, the district representations in Vienna were also decided on Sunday. These results are expected to be available later in the evening. It is eagerly awaited whether the FPÖ will secure a district leader position again. The greatest chances for this are likely in Simmering and Floridsdorf.

First Trend Forecast for the Vienna Election at 5:00 PM

The SPÖ clearly secured first place in the Vienna election on Sunday according to an initial trend forecast at 5:00 PM by Foresight/Hajek on behalf of ORF/APA/Puls24/ATV, despite losses. According to this survey-based estimate, the SPÖ is expected to receive about 37 percent of the votes.

Accordingly, the FPÖ takes second place with 23.5 percent, ahead of the Greens with 12.5 percent. The ÖVP plummets to 11.5 percent but is still ahead of the NEOS, who reach 8.5 percent. According to the initial trend forecast, KPÖ/Links (4 percent) and the Team HC Strache (1.5 percent) are unlikely to enter the Vienna City Council.

A coalition of SPÖ and NEOS would not have a majority of mandates according to this forecast. However, cooperation between SPÖ and ÖVP as well as between SPÖ and Greens would be possible. The SPÖ comes to 40 of the 100 mandates (-6), the FPÖ to 25 (+17), the Greens to 13 (-3), as well as the ÖVP (-9). The NEOS gain one mandate and thus hold nine mandates. Accordingly, the previous coalition of SPÖ and NEOS would come to only 49 seats.

The trend forecast is created by the election researchers of Foresight and Peter Hajek. The experts conduct surveys independently and create a joint forecast on election Sunday, which is published by ORF, APA, and Puls 24. This will provide an estimate of the election result in percentage as well as for the distribution of mandates. Figures are available for all seven parties running city-wide in Vienna (SPÖ, ÖVP, Greens, NEOS, FPÖ, KPÖ, HC). In total, approximately 3,600 interviews with eligible voters in Vienna are conducted for the trend forecast - about 2,000 online and 1,600 by phone. The trend forecast will have a margin of fluctuation of a maximum of +/-3.0 percentage points.

OGM Projection with Similar Result

The projection by the opinion research institute OGM for Servus Nachrichten is almost identical. Accordingly, the SPÖ can clearly defend first place with 39.1 percent. The FPÖ regains second place after the 2020 slump and can almost triple with 20.4 percent. In third place, with a slight minus and 14.6 percent, are the Greens, followed by the NEOS with 10.2 percent. The ÖVP's decline is massive, now at only 9.5 percent. The Team Strache with 1.1 percent and the alliance of KPÖ and Links with 4.0 percent do not make it into the town hall.

(APA/Red)

This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.