Recently, one might have thought that the Mayor of Vienna had miscalculated: It was January, and at the federal level, it seemed to be heading towards a Chancellor Herbert Kickl (FPÖ). Then he announced the advancement of the municipal council election from autumn to April 27, 2025. The calculation was clear: In the federal capital, where unlike in Austria as a whole, there is no majority to the right, but to the left of the center, there would be a movement against Kickl, from which the SPÖ could only benefit.
Things turned out quite differently – and Ludwig still won. Of course: He did not reach the result of the last time with the SPÖ, his party, according to the first projection. Compared to the losses that ruling parties at the federal and state level have otherwise suffered in the past two or three years, however, the minus is modest.
It is only comparable to that of the Burgenland SPÖ under the leadership of Hans Peter Doskozil in January, when they fell from just under 50 to around 46 percent in "their" state election.
Until then, it was believed that ruling parties could only lose big in times like these. Doskozil was the first to provide counterevidence: There is not much to gain for them, but they can hold their ground reasonably well if their work is appreciated by a significant portion of the voters. Doskozil is now not the only one who can claim this, Ludwig has followed suit. And that is incredibly important for him: Doskozil is his arch-enemy.
What is the secret of success? According to the ORF election day survey, a majority of citizens in Vienna are satisfied with the city government. Ludwig benefited from this. But above all, he benefited from the weakness of his competitors. More precisely: Of course, the FPÖ has gained significantly. However, after the historic crash following the Ibiza affair five years ago, they remained a good third below the share of votes they achieved in 2015.
This shows: Herbert Kickl is not a guarantor of success for the party. Furthermore, Dominik Nepp, their top candidate, could not even afford to present himself as a mayoral candidate. No one would have believed him, it would have been too ridiculous. In this respect, Ludwig had no opponent.
In full crisis, however, is the ÖVP, which is still turquoise in Vienna. Their share of the vote has halved. They have not only fallen far behind the FPÖ but also far behind the Greens. This must hurt them, as they completely reject their policies.
The only consolation for the People's Party: Perhaps there is a chance for them to become a junior partner of the SPÖ in the city government. This also makes Ludwig the election winner: He, who rejects cooperation with the FPÖ, has three alternatives. As it looks, he can continue to govern with Neos or alternatively with the Greens or indeed the People's Party. Depending on who offers the best deal.
Johannes Huber runs the blog dieSubstanz.at – Analyses and backgrounds on politics
This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.