Climate Change Causes Cocoa Crisis with Consequences for Easter

"We see the chocolate market facing a wave of inflation rarely seen in recent history," warns the US investment bank JPMorgan. According to the Federal Statistical Office, consumers in Germany receive a third less chocolate for one euro than they did five years ago.

Cocoa crisis due to climate change continues to drive prices up

The price for the Lindt "Gold Bunny" exceeds 4 euros for the first time. Chocolate bars are on average almost a third more expensive than last year, reports market researcher NIQ for the first quarter. The Alpine milk bar from Ritter Sport now costs 1.89 instead of 1.49 euros. Consumer advocates labeled Mondelez's "Milka" chocolate as the "deceptive package of the month" because the bar shrank from 100 to 90 grams while the price rose from 1.49 to 1.99 euros. According to experts, the times of cheap cocoa are probably over for good. West Africa, where more than three-quarters of all beans come from, is feeling the effects of climate change. Weather extremes, pests, and mismanagement are driving the price. The harvest in Ghana collapsed by almost half in 2024 - the worst in two decades - and is recovering less than hoped this year. The Ivory Coast also reported significant declines. A ton of cocoa was traded for up to around 12,000 euros in 2024, six times more expensive than a few years ago.

End of cocoa from West Africa in just 20 or 30 years?

On-site visit in Ghana: Samuel Davor, 67, stands with a sickle among 900 cocoa trees in a village in the west of the country. Instead of nine sacks of beans, this plot delivered five last year. With just under 1.3 tons of cocoa that his cultivation areas produced in total, he and his wife earned around 2,400 euros. This also supports their ten children. Hardly any of them want to become cocoa farmers - the 18-year-old Regina, who helps out during the holidays, prefers tailoring. Cocoa is sensitive. Too hot, too humid, too little rain, too much wind: everything can ruin the harvest. The weather in West Africa, where desert winds and rainy months alternate, was long perfect. Now it is becoming unpredictable. "In 20 or 30 years, there may be no cocoa coming from West Africa at all," says British commodity expert Tedd George. "Even with moderate warming scenarios, it will become too dry and too costly." This year, it rained too late and too little in Ghana. Before the last season, the rain came too early, and fungi and pests spread in Davor's trees. In Ghana, around 13 million diseased cocoa trees had to be felled the year before last, according to industry information. It takes up to five years for new trees to bear fruit. Many farmers cannot afford to replace aging stock in time.

From farmer to trader: More expensive at every stage

Cocoa farmers receive only 9 percent of supermarket prices, according to a 2022 study cited by the British NGO Oxfam. According to a new Oxfam report, Ghana's farmers earn on average less than half of what they need to survive. "Cocoa is a market where producers create a very valuable commodity but receive only a very small share of the actual value creation," says agricultural commodity strategist Tracey Allen from the US investment bank JPMorgan. Ghana's cocoa authority buys the beans from farmers for about 70 percent of the expected price for the season. This year, that's about 3,000 euros per ton - more than ever before, but still significantly less than what is currently being achieved on the stock exchanges. According to market experts, cocoa mass is resold for around 20,000 euros. The supermarket price for a ton of "Goldhase" from Lindt & Sprüngli is around 43,000 euros. A spokesperson stated that they had to pass on the price increases. Nevertheless, the Swiss chocolate company made a net profit of 715 million euros in 2024.

No Way Around West Africa's Cocoa

The industry is aware of the situation and is investing money in sustainability programs like that of the NGO Rainforest Alliance, which works with about a third of cocoa farmers in Ghana. With their help, Samuel Davor has planted shade-giving trees and crops, improved soils with cocoa shell compost, and set up beehives. The idea: higher yields, less deforestation, additional sources of income. Davor says it helps him, but he simply wishes for higher prices. The organization Oxfam calls for more direct payments from manufacturers and supermarkets. According to the industry, there is currently no way around West Africa. About 80 percent of the cocoa in Germany comes from Ivory Coast and Ghana. "Due to the large import volumes and the planting period alone, a significant short- or medium-term shift from these two countries as the main suppliers for Germany would be unrealistic," says the Federal Association of the German Confectionery Industry (BDSI). "Moreover, the EU deforestation regulation severely restricts the planting of cocoa in new growing areas."

Cocoa Crisis Could Change Chocolate

For chocolate lovers, cocoa expert Tedd George sees a frightening scenario: the sweet treat itself could change. "It will still look and taste the same, but it will contain less and poorer quality cocoa," he says. Manufacturers are already experimenting with recipes to replace cocoa butter with cottonseed oil, for example. Chocolatiers are quick to emphasize that this is not up for debate despite the price situation. "We currently do not see that chocolate can be made with these substitute products that trigger the associated moments of enjoyment," says a spokesperson from Ritter Sport. "Despite cost pressures, we maintain the high quality of our premium products," states Lindt & Sprüngli. In Germany, however, prices are already affecting chocolate consumption. According to figures from market researcher NIQ, 10 percent less chocolate bars and 20 percent less pralines were sold at the beginning of the year. According to the BDSI association, German confectionery manufacturers produced only 228 million chocolate Easter bunnies due to prices - 12 million fewer than in 2024.

(APA/Red)

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