Experts: FPÖ Will Become "Very, Very Strong" in Burgenland Election

In just under three weeks, voters in Burgenland will go to the polls to elect a new state parliament. The election campaign has long since begun, but was moderate over the holidays. Pollster Wolfgang Bachmayer (OGM) expects more of a "friendly election" than a "bitter election battle" up to election day. For the SPÖ, political consultant Thomas Hofer and pollster Peter Hajek see holding at least half of the mandates as crucial.

The intensive phase of the election campaign has not yet begun, OGM boss Bachmayer told APA. This will probably only start in the new year. Nevertheless, the positions of the parties are more or less "clear" and will probably bring "little surprise".

SPÖ top candidate Doskozil has reach beyond Burgenland

Incumbent, SP state governor Hans Peter Doskozil has positioned himself as a "father of the state" and his topics such as minimum wage or the employment of caring relatives are "well known". In addition, Doskozil has built himself up as a "strong personal brand". In relation to the size of the federal state, he has a supra-regional perception like hardly any of the other state chiefs, argued the OGM boss: "This will also have an effect on the state election."

Bachmayer also highlighted the comparatively rigid positioning of the Burgenland SPÖ on migration and asylum issues. This is not least due to the fact that in Burgenland there is the "interesting phenomenon" that the view of the local population - and of course also of the red electorate - is significantly more critical of migration compared to the rest of Austria. "This is of course relevant for the election campaign." And of course also for the day after the state election and the beginning of coalition negotiations.

FPÖ remarkably restrained in election campaign before state election

So far, the Freedom Party with its top candidate Norbert Hofer has been noticeably restrained. He attacks the incumbent in a remarkable way hardly or "particularly restrained", as they want to keep all options open from a blue perspective.

Of course, the personality of the top candidate also plays a role. He is, like Mario Kunasek in Styria, conciliatory and prudent in his appearance, unlike FPÖ boss Herbert Kickl. Hofer's criticism therefore also comes "not so sharp and less aggressive". Therefore, the OGM boss in Burgenland expects a "harmonious election campaign" like in Styria and considers a red-blue cooperation with all its effects on the federal parties to be most likely.

Pollster Peter Hajek, who has been conducting surveys for the SPÖ Burgenland since 2012, told APA that it is to be expected that "the Freedom Party will become very, very strong, more than doubling. They are coming from ten percent and will hit somewhere in the middle of the 20 percent". This is "mainly due to the person of top candidate Norbert Hofer".

Looking at an IFDD survey for the weekly newspaper "BVZ" from the beginning of December, Hajek said, one can see that the expected gains of the FPÖ are likely to be at the expense of the ÖVP. ÖVP boss Christian Sagartz has "of course a very difficult starting position, when you compete against two calibers like Doskozil and Hofer".

Chances of Blue-Black Cooperation in Burgenland Minimal

According to Bachmayer, the ÖVP is primarily attacking Doskozil on economic issues. Their top candidate Sagartz criticises the nationalisation course and the indebtedness of Burgenland. However, while Norbert Hofer may hope for "general tailwind" from past elections, the opposite is the case for Sagartz and the ÖVP, says Bachmayer.

Nevertheless, according to the pollster, the ÖVP could be the "deciding factor", even though the chances of a blue-black cooperation after the election seem minimal. Although Doskozil is trying to paint a blue-black bogeyman on the wall, reality looks different. Predictions are also difficult because there are "hardly any serious polls" in Burgenland.

Few Surveys for Burgenland Election

Thomas Hofer and Peter Hajek also pointed to the thin data situation. It is "clear" to Hofer that the SPÖ with Doskozil is so strong that it will "remain the clear number one". The decisive question will be whether the SPÖ will be able to hold the 18th mandate in the 36-seat state parliament. Then nobody could govern against the Social Democrats, added Hajek: "If they lose the 18th mandate and the Greens fall out of the state parliament, and there is only a three-party parliament, then Blue-Black is of course arithmetically possible."

The relevance of the Greens' entry or non-entry was also emphasised by Thomas Hofer. This question could "be very close", said the expert with a view to the Green result in the Styrian state election. The performance of NEOS and the "List of Common Sense", which are given virtually no chance of entering, will also be relevant for potential majority mandates. It's about "how many percentage points are taken out that will not be mandate-justifying", says Hofer. "The moment the Greens are in, it's more relaxed for Doskozil, because then no coalition is possible without him. But if the Greens stay out and the SPÖ narrowly loses the 18th mandate, then there is a chance that Norbert Hofer will be the next blue state governor." Of course, the SPÖ under Doskozil could also form a coalition with the FPÖ in Burgenland at any time, "he (Doskozil, note) would have no pain". However, Hajek also considers the achievement of the "absolute" for the SPÖ to be "feasible" - "whether this will be successful will only be seen on election night".

Greens and NEOS Must Fear Entry into State Parliament

The situation is difficult for the Greens and the NEOS, also according to Bachmayer's view. Both parties must fear entry into the state parliament, for which four percent of the votes nationwide or a basic mandate is necessary. In addition, they risk being run over in the three-way battle between SPÖ, ÖVP and FPÖ, he said.

The ongoing coalition negotiations between ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS would also have an impact on the state election. Details ventilated from the negotiations such as the discussed increase in property tax or the "SPÖ idea of an inheritance or wealth tax" would not go down so well in Burgenland with the highest proportion of single-family homes in all federal states, Bachmayer believes.

(APA/Red)

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