This Asteroid Poses the Greatest Threat to Earth
The "Asteroid 2024 YR4", discovered on December 27, 2024, by a telescope of the Asteroid Warning System (ATLAS) in Río Hurtado (Chile), turned out to be an unlikely candidate for impact after initial analyses. Since the object is likely to have a diameter between 40 and 100 meters and there is a 1.2 percent probability that it will impact on December 22, 2032, the European Space Agency ESA now ranks it first among asteroid threats.
Mini-Impact Risk: ESA Focuses on Recently Discovered Asteroid
An impact of an object of this size only occurs every few thousand years according to ESA. Under unfavorable circumstances, such an impact could indeed cause significant regional destruction. The calculations of the ESA, which concluded the 17th European Space Conference in Brussels yesterday, would match those of the US space agency NASA. The now calculated probability of currently about 1.2 percent is "one of the highest probabilities for an impact of a rock of significant size that has ever existed," wrote David Rankin from the Catalina Sky Survey telescope system on Bluesky, referring to data collected so far, which, however, only cover a tiny period of Earth's history.
Calculated Probability of Impact May Still Change
The ESA stated that the calculated impact probability of a still distant asteroid often drops to zero after further observations. The asteroid is currently about 27 million kilometers away from Earth. It is rated 3 on the so-called Torino Scale.
This means that it is a closer approach of a celestial body to Earth, which requires the attention of astronomers. If the probability of an impact is at least one percent, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) becomes active and collects data.
Regional Severe Damage, but No "Planet Killer"
Should "2024 YR4" actually hit the Earth, it could explode in the atmosphere and cause damage with a shock wave and heat, it was said. It could also cause a crater with a diameter of more than one kilometer. "2024 YR4" is not a so-called "planet killer" that could wipe out life on Earth, Richard Moissl, head of asteroid defense at the ESA, was quoted, among others, in the "Münchner Merkur". "There is no reason to worry," said the scientist. "We assume that it will be a close or even very close flyby."
In the coming months, the asteroid will move away from the Earth on its elongated orbit around the sun and disappear from view, according to the ESA. It will then only be observable again in 2028.
(APA/Red)
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