New elections would probably be the most likely option if the blue-black coalition negotiations fail. A coalition of ÖVP and SPÖ would also be theoretically conceivable. However, against this speaks the fact that this constellation would only be stabilized by one additional mandate. It currently seems unlikely that Black and Red will agree again after the talks for a three-party coalition have failed. A possible third partner would probably not change that.

Resumption of Black-Red (-Pink) Coalition Negotiations

Recently, Green Party leader Werner Kogler appealed to ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS to resume the negotiations that failed at the beginning of the year to prevent a government with FPÖ participation. Although he would prefer a government with green participation, his party might also support other constellations, Black-Red with or without the NEOS, in the National Council, for example in the budget. Party leaders Andreas Babler (SPÖ) and Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS) also recently signaled vague willingness to resume talks. However, the People's Party quickly brushed aside such advances.

New Elections After Failure of Coalition Negotiations Probably Not Before June

A renewed election seems more likely. FPÖ party leader Herbert Kickl would have no problem with this, as he tirelessly emphasizes. After all, his party is polling well beyond 30 percent. However, an election naturally requires some lead time. In addition to a new election resolution by the National Council, the election must be announced by ordinance in the Federal Law Gazette. There must be 82 days between the fixed deadline in it and the election.

First and foremost, the dissolution of the National Council requires a resolution by the same with a simple majority. Theoretically, the National Council can also be dissolved by the Federal President on the proposal of the government, which has never happened in the Second Republic. After the decision for new elections, the election must be announced by the federal government through a regulation in the Federal Law Gazette. This must include the election day, which is determined by the federal government in agreement with the main committee of the National Council. Additionally, the regulation must include the key date, which must be on the eighty-second day before the election day. From this date, various deadlines begin to run, such as those for the appointment of the district election officers, the assessors, and the constitution of the election authorities. But also various prerequisites of the electoral law, eligibility, or the collection of support declarations from smaller parties are determined from this date.

From the decision for new elections to the election, it takes about three months. The National Council will meet for its next scheduled session on February 26, although a special session could be convened before that. Assuming that the parliamentary procedure and the announcement take at least two to three weeks, a new election date before June is hardly possible. For an election on June 1, the key date would fall on March 4. For an election on the Pentecost weekend (June 8), the key date would fall on March 11.

Coalition Negotiations: Expert Government and Minority Government Also Possible

Theoretically, Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen could also appoint an expert government, as he did after the collapse of the turquoise-blue coalition following the Ibiza affair. Like any other government, this would need the support of the National Council to avoid being ousted by a vote of no confidence. Political reforms are difficult to implement without a stable majority, so an expert government would only be conceivable as a transitional solution.

There is also the possibility of a minority government, meaning a constellation in which the governing parties hold less than half of the National Council mandates. However, this is extremely uncertain, as at least parts of the opposition would need to support legislative decisions, or the government could be dismissed by the opposition at any time. Minority governments have no tradition in Austria, and Van der Bellen always emphasizes how important a "reliable majority" is for a government.

(APA/Red)

This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.