Study: Ukrainian Refugees Follow Job Opportunities, Not Social Welfare
In a study published in the journal "PNAS," a research team has now investigated what would most likely motivate this group of refugees to relocate again. According to the study, job prospects and earning opportunities are more important than social benefits.
In a surprisingly swift move just a few days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the spring of 2022, the EU, for the first time in its history, granted a group of refugees the right to apply for temporary protection in an EU country of their choice. This means that Ukrainians do not have to go through the usual asylum procedures. This, in turn, makes them a group of particular interest for migration research, as the team led by the study's first author, Joop Adema, who has been working at the University of Innsbruck since this year, writes in their publication.
Ukrainian Refugees Follow Job Prospects Rather Than Social Benefits
The role of social benefits as factors in choosing a destination country for refugees has been highly controversial for many years, not only in Austria - scientifically reliable data on this is surprisingly rare, according to the study. In fact, the role of differently designed social benefits on the size and composition of refugee flows is still largely unclear.
Adema and colleagues conducted a study, primarily led by the Munich Center for Migration and Development Economics (ifo), involving over 3,300 Ukrainian refugees in various EU countries, as well as Norway and Switzerland, in two survey waves. They were subjected to a kind of experiment: they had to choose between two hypothetical countries that differed in terms of distance to Ukraine, presence of family and friends, hypothetical knowledge of the local language, job opportunities matching their qualifications, average income, as well as the social and family benefits paid and housing costs. These factors were systematically varied. All participants had to decide where they would most likely travel next.
Question Marks on the Impact of Cuts
"We have found that job opportunities are a much stronger driver for the choice of destination country than social benefits," write the researchers in their work. It is observed "that wage differences play almost four times a stronger role in the choice of destination country for Ukrainian refugees than differences in social benefits. Of course, this does not mean that social benefits do not play a role," ifo director Panu Poutvaara is quoted in a release. In addition to job prospects and good earning opportunities, existing family or friend networks and knowledge of the local language also make a destination country more attractive.
The fact that all of this was far more attractive than the prospect of social benefits also leads one to doubt that cuts to these benefits for refugees significantly protect a country from immigration. And: "Cutting state aid could also have a long-term negative impact on integration," says co-author Yvonne Giesing.
Applicability to Other Refugee Groups Rather Open
Overall, the team considers the relationships they found to be generally applicable to other refugee groups as well. However, they admit that Ukrainian displaced persons tend to have a higher level of education than other refugee groups, and therefore job market opportunities might be more important to them. In fact, the researchers also observed that Ukrainian citizens, for whom job prospects and language skills are more important, also more frequently lived in countries that better matched these values.
(APA/Red)
This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.