Researchers Search for Future Wildfire Hotspots

This can be observed not only in the current, sometimes record-breaking fires in the Mediterranean region but also here at home. A team led by Florian Kraxner and Andrey Krasovskiy is using a sophisticated system to search for future forest fire hotspots, including in Austria. This is intended to help make forests fit for the future.

Experts from Geosphere Austria are currently providing a forest fire danger forecast that extends about three days into the future. This is based on long-term precipitation data and shorter-term weather forecasts. This system is sufficiently accurate for immediate forecasting, said Florian Kraxner, who works at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg near Vienna, in an interview with APA.

With his team, he leads a project called "Austria Fire Futures" under the Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP) and has been researching for several years with partners from the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, and the Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape (BFW) on a detailed survey of combustible material in forests in various world regions. The scientists refer to this as "fuel" - which translates to combustible material in German.

How Dangerous Will a Spot Be in 100 Years?

Unlike other approaches, "at IIASA, we look further into the future with our models. We try to identify global fire risk hotspots," said Kraxner. For this purpose, the self-developed model called "FLAM" calculates the probability of forest fires, their potential spread, intensity, and the emissions of pollutants from them under various climate scenarios, regional population development, and forest management forms for the coming decades.

The experts aim to resolve as precisely as possible "what grows and lies on the ground there" and how moist the soil and the combustible material are. How close human activities take place is also an important factor. A special feature is the specific calculation of the so-called "forest fire fighting efficiency" - that is, how quickly a fire can be detected and fought or extinguished.

Ultimately, the goal is to estimate how dangerous a spot will be in ten or 100 years. The aim is to provide recommendations for forest management, for example, when it comes to reducing the available "fuel" in a particularly vulnerable area in the medium term. This requires more knowledge than just whether it is a mixed forest dominated by deciduous trees in lowlands or a high forest formed more by coniferous trees. "Ultimately, we want to provide recommendations on how to make our forest climate-fit," emphasized Kraxner.

Expert: We Need Active Forest Conversion

For example, there is already a system from the Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape (BFW) with different traffic light colors for various tree species at different altitudes in Austria. Kraxner and his team can then provide information on the question of future fire danger - also tailored to the economic, tourist, or ecological functions that the forest is supposed to fulfill.

The development of the forest does not happen by itself. If you let a spruce that is no longer appropriate for a certain location naturally die, there is a high chance that another spruce will follow in the same spot - which will also be overwhelmed by rising temperatures, the increasing bark beetle infestation due to warmth, and possible water scarcity. "This way, we won't achieve any change," said Kraxner: If you want a future-proof forest, you have to "intervene actively, massively, and over a long period."

"There Will Be More Fires"

The necessary "transition" or forest restructuring is indeed a major task, for which short-term danger situations and long-term developments must be considered. With constant analyses, it can also be better decided where fire brigade units should be stationed in the future or already now, "to reach the hotspots of the future as quickly as possible".

It is clear: "There will be more fires" that need to be extinguished quickly - and this also applies to Austria, for example in southern Lower Austria, in large parts of Carinthia, or in the border area between Salzburg and Upper Austria. Municipalities, forest owners, foresters, and forest managers must be involved here to provide tourists with more information on fire prevention or to close particularly endangered hiking routes during dry periods. Just knowing that you live or vacation in a hotspot region can make a big difference.

Researchers Have Austria, South Korea, and Sardinia in Focus

The "FLAM" model operates globally on a grid of around 50 by 50 kilometers, in Austria it already reaches a side length of one kilometer to 500 meters. In addition to global analyses, scientists can also examine the situation in South Korea, which has been hit by strong fires again this year, or in Sardinia, which was also heavily affected this summer, with the highest resolution. The team works intensively with experts from these countries.

The risk of fire ignition and the expected fire area are calculated, which ultimately determines the assessment of the hazard following the traffic light logic. A side note: In sparsely populated areas in the north, lightning is the biggest fire starter, in our regions it is almost always humans.

Regarding global warming, "we are unfortunately on a very bad path," emphasized Kraxner. Looking at the climate paths with currently realistically high temperature increases using the model, consistently higher expected forest area losses emerge for all federal states. While approximately 65 hectares burned annually nationwide in the period from 2001 to 2020, looking at the unfavorable climate scenarios towards the end of the century (2081-2100), it would be between around 85 and just under 100 hectares per year. According to an evaluation by the team, the largest expected fire areas are then expected to be up to almost 25 and 21 hectares annually in Lower Austria and Tyrol, as well as in Carinthia (around 16.5 hectares).

Even now, the climatic changes are having a strong impact on the local forest systems. Historically, there were hardly any large forest fires in our regions. However, in recent years, the trend is also moving towards more extensive fires here. This is partly due to "very noticeably" changing precipitation patterns.

A lot of rain in the summer, like this year, is good to reduce the fire risk in the hotter season. However, if the slowly melting snow from winter is missing in spring - as has been the case in many years recently - there is a lack of moisture in spring and the following seasons. Nature particularly needs the moisture then to keep the probability of fire low throughout the year, emphasized Kraxner.

(Red)

This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.