Karl Nehammer has messed it up. Half an eternity ago, Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen commissioned him to form a government. However, he took too much time and proceeded without ambition: First, autumn holidays were on the agenda. Then he let things run somehow with hundreds of negotiators. Now everything is out of control.
Because he did not give the Turquoise-Red-Pink project a working title, cynics have established terms like "Candy Coalition" or "Ömpel". It is incomprehensible: Precisely because this constellation is so impossible, Nehammer should have acted quickly and created facts. Especially with the budget. He did not do it, so it has just become visible what a mess he, as the former chancellor, and his former finance minister Magnus Brunner are responsible for: The biggest austerity package of all time is needed. Good night.
How he wants to get this through now is a mystery: Neos will demand even more clearly to be allowed to provide the finance minister. In addition, they will increase the pressure to proceed with a pension reform that really brings in a lot of money. Conversely, Social Democrats will now say even more emphatically that a large wealth tax is "without alternative". "Where else are we going?!"
This will, in turn, infuriate the forces within the ÖVP who prefer the FPÖ to the SPÖ and would therefore prefer Blue-Turquoise: business representatives and the Lower Austrian governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner, for example, who, by the way, do not want to know anything about tax increases.
This can hardly end well for Nehammer. Especially since more trouble awaits him at the end of January. Municipal council elections are taking place in Lower Austria, and a state election in Burgenland. The ÖVP (Lower Austria) and the SPÖ (Burgenland) are threatened with losses. In both cases, the Freedom Party is likely to gain significantly.
Kickl could then offer the ÖVP a deal: They share power in Burgenland and thus replace Hans Peter Doskozil as governor. This would primarily benefit the People's Party, which would otherwise probably have to remain in opposition. In return, they will cooperate at the federal level.
Will the FPÖ leader go that far? Hardly. It would contradict the narrative that the first must become the head of government. Both at the federal and state level. And in Burgenland, Doskozil is likely to stay ahead with the SPÖ.
The point, however, is that everyone is aware that it would be fundamentally possible. And that with further electoral successes of the Freedom Party, those forces within the ÖVP will feel confirmed who say that there is no way around Blue-Turquoise including Kickl: This increases the likelihood that it will ultimately come to that - without Nehammer, who will then probably have to leave.
Johannes Huber runs the blog dieSubstanz.at – Analyses and backgrounds on politics
This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.