Comments suggesting that FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl has lost because the coalition negotiations with the ÖVP have failed and he therefore cannot move into the Chancellery in a few days are puzzling: He started with the motto "All or nothing" from the outset. And of course, he may have assumed that he would get everything he wants; that the People's Party would submit. However, from the outset, one had to doubt whether he wanted to achieve the big goal right now. Just the way he invited the ÖVP and its chairman Christian Stocker to negotiations at the beginning of January was a provocation. A provocation that expressed that Kickl wouldn't mind if nothing came of it. Accordingly, he is now quite relaxed.
The FPÖ leader knows that in elections in the foreseeable future, much more than the 28.8 percent for his party, which it achieved last autumn, is possible. In any case, as long as the state of the ÖVP and SPÖ remains as it is. He also knows that it will then be even more difficult for the People's Party to avoid cooperation with him. Their problem is that they have delivered themselves to him and the Freedom Party.
What could happen from Kickl's perspective? The ÖVP has run out of personnel. With Karoline Edtstadler, the last woman who could stand up to him has left. She will soon become governor in Salzburg. Sebastian Kurz has long been gone. A comeback is possible, but he is so damaged by scandals and his coronavirus policy that it is questionable whether he could return to his best times.
Basically, the People's Party is pursuing a policy today that is not far removed from that of the FPÖ. More precisely: In five federal states, it is already working together with them within the framework of coalitions. However, too often it lacks people who have the potential to perform better than the Freedom Party. This is especially the case at the federal level, where they have run out of personnel. There, Kickl can only win, eventually absorbing the ÖVP.
Unintentional assistance comes from the SPÖ: Andreas Babler, as chairman, has not managed to take voters away from Kickl. On the contrary: Among workers, he achieved an absolute majority for the FPÖ in the national election. One could also say: The weakness of the Social Democrats contributes to Kickl's strength almost as much as the aforementioned state of the ÖVP does.
A miracle would have to happen for this to change. The Blacks and Reds would not only have to recognize the seriousness of the situation but also do justice to it. In the event of a government collaboration, they should not fall into the misconception that they are now saved and that Kickl will somehow disappear over time. In the event of new elections, they would urgently need new faces. Social Democrats could, for example, ask Christian Kern to become chairman again. He would have the potential to lead the party to at least 25 percent. For the ÖVP, no possible successor candidate for Christian Stocker comes to mind quickly. One would have to search longer. But that is now idle: Little to nothing indicates that there is a willingness for such a renewal. In other words: Kickl has not lost yet.
Johannes Huber runs the blog dieSubstanz.at – Analyses and Backgrounds on Politics
This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.