In This Scenario, Austria's Neutrality Is Obsolete

Although the future federal government consisting of ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS reaffirms neutrality in its government program, it relies on European cooperation and solidarity. The document states that Austria makes "an active contribution to the creation of security and peace" and continues to engage in disarmament and peace missions.

Europe's Deficiencies in Defense

Wolff warns of Europe's military weaknesses, particularly in conventional weapon systems such as tanks and artillery. Even more serious is the lag in digital defense technologies, satellites, intelligence services, and cyber security.

His study, published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) in collaboration with Alexandr Burilkov from the think tank Bruegel, concludes that Europe would need to replace the military presence of 300,000 US soldiers. To achieve efficiency gains, a joint European procurement of these systems would be sensible.

Cooperation as the Key

How a European defense strategy should be organized is still unclear. Wolff considers cooperation within the EU or with NATO states such as Norway and the United Kingdom to be ideal, but acknowledges that political realities may necessitate smaller coalitions.

European Defense Industry with Potential

Despite existing deficits, Wolff sees great opportunities for the European defense industry. Compared to the USA, Europe has industrial capacities to rapidly expand production – the decisive factors are political will and the provision of financial resources.

Wolff also notes that despite military successes in Ukraine, Russia is not capable of overrunning the entire country. As a result, Kyiv ties up Russian troops and indirectly contributes to Europe's security.

Nuclear Weapons: Europe's New Reality?

According to Wolff, the nuclear deterrence of the USA in Europe is becoming increasingly uncertain. The protective shield has become "fragile and doubtful" – not only because of Donald Trump's policies but also due to fundamental considerations in the USA. Europe must therefore increasingly rely on its own capacities.

France and the United Kingdom, as the only European nuclear powers, will have to play a larger role in the future. "We will probably have to invest a significant amount of money to make nuclear deterrence more credible," says Wolff.

(The conversation was conducted by Petra Edlbacher/APA)

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