After Three Years of Ukraine War: Peace According to Expert Within Reach

Three years after the start of the Russian offensive war, Ukraine has, according to military expert Markus Reisner, "made history": "It has achieved incredible things," explained the Austrian Armed Forces Colonel in an interview with APA. "But, and this is the problem, it is trapped in a war of attrition." Here, the availability of resources is crucial, and Russia is clearly at an advantage. Nevertheless, Reisner sees the chances for an agreement "as great as never before."

Meeting Between Trump and Putin Crucial for Agreement

A potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin could be "decisive": "One can assume that preparations are already underway for this meeting," said Reisner. However, the meeting will only take place when something crystallizes in the preliminary discussions that can be presented. "Trump will certainly want to showcase something to avoid coming out of this meeting as a loser." Success will also depend on whether Trump and Putin "understand each other." Reisner: "The paradox is that the chance for an agreement is greater than ever before in the last three years. But it could also be the chance for an escalation if both do not find a common basis for discussion. And that is the dangerous part."

Ukraine Fighting on Three Fronts

Russia has managed with its airstrikes to destroy or severely damage almost 80 percent of Ukraine's critical infrastructure. Moscow is moving on a strategic level to "not only attack the energy supply but also the gas supply," reported Reisner. With this, Russia is trying to deprive Ukraine of the ability to produce its own resources, such as armaments. On the other hand, these "terror attacks" are also intended to intimidate the population to such an extent that a political shift occurs in Ukraine.

Additionally, Ukraine faces the major challenge of soldier availability. "The operational level is such that Ukraine has to manage three fronts - with material, equipment, gear, but also soldiers." It has the long front in the Donbass from Zaporizhzhia to Kupiansk with almost 1,100 kilometers; a short front section near Kharkiv of also nearly 200 kilometers and the section in the Russian region of Kursk of also approximately 150 to 200 kilometers. In some parts of the front, the "filling level" of Ukrainian combat units is very low, meaning only 25 to 35 percent of the soldiers that should actually be present are available.

Russia Captured 4,500 Square Kilometers in 12 Months

"Russia knows these gaps and tries to penetrate them wherever possible," explained Reisner. "The Russians exert enormous pressure and are trying, in fact, to advance further, especially in the Donbass, with the aim of entering the next oblast: that is Dnipropetrovsk." Within the past twelve months, the Russians have managed to take possession of approximately 4,500 square kilometers. That is more than ten times the area of Vienna. Ukraine, on the other hand, has only managed to capture or still hold about 500 square kilometers in the Kursk area. "This means that one can see that the momentum is still with the Russians."

The use of drones on a tactical level allows the Ukrainians to keep Russia at a distance and inflict losses, as well as partially compensate for personnel shortages. According to the military strategist, drones are suitable for fighting Russians in the immediate vicinity, but not for destroying artillery, for example. The drone air campaign of Ukraine has also been successful, having already attacked 20 of the 30 most important Russian refineries. "But the successes are still limited, so they are not immediately measurable."

The destruction of Russian ammunition depots and oil production would be a measurable success for the Ukrainians. "But we don't see that yet," said Reisner. There are indeed setbacks, but these are not as painful compared to what Ukraine has to endure, as to make Russia relent. "The question is rather, how long can Ukraine hold out." Reisner answers this question as follows: Ukraine can hold out as long as the USA and the European Union stand by its side. "If this support is lacking, Ukraine cannot continue this war." The arms deliveries must remain at least at the current level, or even increase from Reisner's perspective. Otherwise, Ukraine will "eventually run out of soldiers."

Trump's Statements as Setbacks for Ukrainians

When asked about the losses, Reisner referred to Trump's statements. The US President recently mentioned the number of 800,000 to 900,000 killed and wounded Russian soldiers, as well as an estimated 700,000 on the Ukrainian side. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates that at least 172,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and 611,000 wounded, of which at least 376,000 are seriously. These figures also include many missing soldiers.

Since Trump took office, Ukraine has experienced "a rollercoaster of emotions," said Reisner. Statements by the US President, suggesting that parts of Ukraine might soon become Russian or that he wanted compensation such as rare earths for arms deliveries, are of course unsettling for Kyiv. Also, the statement by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, that a return to Ukraine's pre-war borders is "unrealistic," a lasting peace is only "possible with a realistic assessment of the situation on the battlefield," and that Trump "does not support Ukraine's NATO membership as part of a peace plan," are serious setbacks for the Ukrainians. It is also interesting that the "wording" of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has changed: From "we will not give up a square meter" to now, where he says: Okay, we are even ready to exchange a territory."

Hybrid Warfare: Drones Over Germany

Russia continues to rely on hybrid warfare: For example, drone overflights are now repeatedly observed in Germany. These are not drones from Russia, but they are presumably launched from ships in northern Germany and fly, for example, over training grounds where Ukrainian soldiers are being trained. The Russians are trying to locate the cell phones of the Ukrainian soldiers, explained Reisner. "If soldiers are being trained on a Patriot battery in northern Germany, they just need to follow the cell phone data and know where these Patriot batteries are in Ukraine."

A second purpose is the attempt to intimidate the population in Germany. People should be shown "how helpless they actually are, because they cannot even control these drones flying in Germany." This is clearly an application of "hybrid warfare" methods.

(APA/Red)

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