How Austria's Population Will Change by 2080
The proportion of those over 65 is expected to increase from 20 percent to more than 26 percent by 2040. According to Statistics Austria, the projected growth until 2040 is based solely on expected migration gains. In the long term, an annual increase of around 28,000 to 43,000 additional people through migration movements is expected. However, this growth can no longer compensate for an expected negative birth balance (more deaths than births) at the turning point, explained Lenk and her colleague Pauline Pohl, Project Manager for Demographic Forecasts at Statistics Austria. For in the coming years, the number of deaths will also exceed that of newborn babies. By 2040, an average annual birth balance of about minus 23,000 fewer babies is expected, and in 2040, Statistics Austria expects a birth balance of around minus 29,000.
2040: More than 2.46 Million People in Austria Over 65 Years Old
As Lenk and Pohl predicted on Wednesday, more than 2.46 million people over 65 are expected in 15 years. The number of employed people, on the other hand, is expected to shrink by around 256,000 by 2040. The proportion of those under 20 in the total population will decrease only slightly from 19.2 percent last year to 17.3 percent for 2040.
The population increase expected by 2040 of 2.5 percent is therefore distributed very unevenly regionally. Due to migration, above-average increases are expected in Vienna, according to Statistics Austria. Currently, more than a third of international immigration to Austria is accounted for by the federal capital. In addition to Vienna (plus 9.2 percent), population growth is also forecast for Vorarlberg (plus 3.7 percent), Upper Austria (plus 2.2 percent), and Lower Austria (plus 1.5 percent) by 2040. At the same time, population losses of minus 3.5 percent are expected for Carinthia. In the other federal states, the population is expected to remain largely stable according to the main scenario of the population forecast.
Pohl pointed out on Wednesday that population forecasts are naturally subject to certain uncertainties. Therefore, various scenarios were also calculated. However, a comparison shows that the aging process of the population cannot be halted even by a strong increase in births and a strong increase in immigration.
(APA/Red.)
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