Sebastian Kurz is being courted. Recently, he was welcomed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at an event near Budapest; among others, Alice Weidel, the leader of the German AfD, was also present. And the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung" has just published a major interview with the former chancellor and ÖVP leader, which focused less on his entrepreneurial activities and more on his political views. Particularly on flight and migration, which he used to cultivate right-wing populism and demand more toughness.
Once again, it is evident: The man is not done with politics. And his comeback chances are increasing. Firstly: In this country, the potential for a man or woman with their own new list is growing. This can be deduced, for example, from the fact that Herbert Kickl (FPÖ) would win a chancellor direct election by a wide margin. According to a recent "Standard" survey, he would receive similar support with 30 percent as incumbent Christian Stocker (ÖVP), Vice Chancellor Andreas Babler (SPÖ), and Foreign Minister Beate Meinl-Reisinger (Neos) combined (33 percent).
This is remarkable insofar as, according to the APA/OGM index, he is met with comparatively little trust and extremely high distrust. The fact that he is still so highly regarded has to do with the great aversion towards the competitors, indeed that he offers himself to reject or even humiliate them. After all, he promises to dismantle the existing political system.
Secondly: It is still more obvious for Sebastian Kurz to take over the ÖVP once again, as he did in 2017, rather than founding his own list. There may be reservations and resistance within the party. However, this is countered by a veritable emergency: Stocker does nothing wrong, but too little really well. In a chancellor direct election, he would have to settle for 13 percent, not even half as much as Kickl. The ÖVP as a party holds barely over 20 percent, or a good third less than the FPÖ.
No wonder, one might say, Stocker and his ÖVP have just had to present an unpopular austerity package. True. However, their problem is that there is no prospect of better times, but rather that further austerity packages will be necessary.
It is also no consolation for them that elections will not take place again for two years. If nothing changes in their dire situation, it will be too late: Then elections will first be held in Upper Austria and other states, and ultimately at the federal level, with the risk everywhere that they will lose and the Freedom Party will sweep up.
This is so foreseeable that the ÖVP is unlikely to let it come to that, but will instead ask Kurz for a comeback. Open affairs like the one concerning advertisements do not stand in the way. Kurz remains the last hope for relevant parts of the party to retain power. Especially since he is still treated like a superstar by high-reach tabloid media. Reason: He brings clicks because he excites some and impresses others, but leaves hardly anyone indifferent. Like Kickl, who currently has no competition.
Johannes Huber runs the blog dieSubstanz.at – Analyses and Backgrounds on Politics
This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.