OeNB Forecast: 3.8 Percent Deficit and Slight Decline in Economic Growth Expected

Despite the efforts of the new black-red-pink government to save the budget, the Austrian National Bank (OeNB) does not expect the deficit to fall below the Maastricht threshold of 3 percent this year. The government does not want to adopt further measures due to feared negative economic effects. Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen is relaxed about a possible EU deficit procedure.

OeNB also expects a deficit of more than 3 percent in 2026 and 2027

Van der Bellen could "only agree" with Fiscal Council Chairman Christoph Badelt and Finance Minister Markus Marterbauer (SPÖ): "No reason to panic," said the Federal President on Tuesday at a press conference with his Albanian counterpart in Vienna. In the event of a deficit procedure, only formal consultations with the EU Commission would take place. "That's all." He therefore "did not understand why such a drama was made about whether there is a deficit procedure or not," said the Federal President. However, the background is "indeed serious," Van der Bellen continued. The budget is "easy to consolidate" in times of a boom, but caution is advised in the event of a recession. "Why? Because too strong spending cuts and tax increases would further exacerbate the recession." Therefore, it is a situation that "requires a delicate touch."

The government apparently sees it similarly: "New or higher taxes are currently not the right way, as they would only additionally burden the economy," said Finance State Secretary Eibinger-Miedl (ÖVP) in a statement. The goal is to revive the economic engine, "therefore the government relies on predictability and long-term reforms." An EU deficit procedure is accepted. A deficit procedure is possible, said the ÖVP State Secretary. "Whether such a procedure will actually be initiated depends on further economic development and will be decided by the EU Commission in July 2025." The government wants to stick to the agreed consolidation course and the savings planned for this year and next, she emphasized.

Budget consolidation is made difficult by weak economic development. The OeNB has included all the savings measures planned by the government in its deficit estimate. The still weak economy leads to lower growth in tax revenues and increases spending in the labor market budget, the central bank explained on Tuesday. In addition, the tax rate has increased until 2024 despite many tax cuts. However, this trend is expected to reverse in the coming years. In this context, the OeNB estimates the consolidation volume of the planned savings package for 2025 at only 4 billion euros, while the government had promised a volume of more than 6 billion euros. In 2026, the budget deficit is expected to fall to 3.3 percent, but the central bank only expects the deficit to be just above the Maastricht limit at 3.1 percent in 2027. The reason: further consolidation measures will take effect in 2026 and 2027, and the economy should recover somewhat.

Consolidation need for the budget has dramatically increased

In this context, the OeNB estimates the consolidation volume of the planned savings package for 2025 at only 4 billion euros, while the government had promised a volume of more than 6 billion euros. In 2026, the budget deficit is expected to fall to 3.3 percent, but the central bank only expects the deficit to be just above the Maastricht limit at 3.1 percent in 2027. The reason: further consolidation measures will take effect in 2026 and 2027, and the economy should recover somewhat. As was already known on Monday, the consolidation need for the budget has dramatically increased. It was previously assumed that around 6.3 billion euros would need to be saved to avoid an EU deficit procedure, but the sum has now almost doubled. Fiscal Council Chairman Badelt expects a further consolidation need of four to five billion.

On Tuesday, different criticism came from the opposition. FPÖ General Secretary Christian Hafenecker mainly criticized the ÖVP, which, in his view, should have dealt with the situation much earlier. At a press conference, he warned of a deficit procedure, which would mean "handing over even more competencies to Brussels." Additionally, Austria would face the threat of a worse rating. Green Party leader Werner Kogler, on the other hand, spoke in favor of an EU deficit procedure. "We must not stifle everything that is relevant for the future due to a misunderstanding of the rules," said Kogler at a press conference. He blamed the economic situation and previous governments, which had caused a "criminal" dependency on Russian gas, for the budget figures.

OeNB lowers growth forecast for 2025

The Austrian National Bank (OeNB) has significantly revised down its growth forecast for this year and the coming years. For 2025, the National Bank now expects a slight decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.1 percent. In December, it had still anticipated a GDP increase of 0.8 percent. This indicates a third year of recession in Austria. The budget deficit is expected to be 3.8 percent despite the new government's consolidation plans.

The OeNB has also lowered its forecasts for the next two years, 2026 and 2027. For both years, it now expects economic growth of 1.2 percent each, after having assumed an increase of 1.6 percent (2026) and 1.3 percent (2027) in December. With its assessment, the National Bank is currently on the more pessimistic side. According to their estimates from December, the Economic Research Institute (Wifo) and the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) still expect an increase of 0.6 and 0.7 percent, respectively. However, on Thursday, the economic researchers will present their current spring forecast.

Reasons for the downward revision of the GDP forecast include new economic data, geopolitical uncertainties, and the new government's consolidation package. The latter has been priced in with all planned measures. The European Central Bank (ECB) already lowered its GDP forecast for the euro area to 0.9 percent at the beginning of March, after an expectation of 1.1 percent in December.

OeNB Chief Holzmann Sees Economic Development Low Point Overcome

Despite the lowered outlook, the OeNB expects the economy to stabilize again this year. "The low point of economic development seems to have been overcome," said OeNB Governor Robert Holzmann according to a release. Inflation has stabilized, falling interest rates are reducing cost pressure on businesses and households, and the confidence of industry and consumers is increasing again.

However, growth is only expected from the second half of the year, which is why the forecast for the entire year remains slightly negative. The significantly increased energy inflation at the beginning of 2025 - after the expiration of some government support measures - as well as above-average service inflation are also driving the inflation forecast for the entire year 2025 upwards. An HICP inflation of 2.9 percent is expected for this year. For 2026, a decrease in inflation to 2.3 percent is expected, and in 2027, inflation is expected to be at 2.1 percent. The OeNB sees risks to its growth and inflation assumptions in the tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, the German economic package could have positive growth effects in Austria.

Austria is thus lagging behind the eurozone in terms of inflation expectations. For the eurozone, it is expected that these will move towards the ECB's target of 2 percent this year. The target value is expected to be reached at the beginning of 2026. In the course of this, the ECB has also lowered its key interest rates six times since June 2024. Whether there will be another rate cut at the upcoming meeting in April was left open by OeNB Governor Robert Holzmann.

OeNB Balance Sheet Loss 2024 at 4.2 Billion Euros

The Austrian National Bank (OeNB) has once again recorded a billion-euro loss in the past year. The bottom line was a balance sheet loss of 4.184 billion euros, with the business result amounting to minus 2.122 billion euros. The OeNB had already had to accept significant losses in previous years. The reason is the different interest rates on assets and liabilities. As a result, the federal government is once again left empty-handed this year and receives no profit distribution.

The "low point in negative business results" has been surpassed, but the monetary policy measures of recent years have "left their mark on the balance sheet and the profit and loss account of the OeNB," said Deputy Governor Edeltraud Stiftinger on Tuesday according to a release. In the course of the many years of ultra-loose monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the crises of recent years - especially the coronavirus pandemic and the Ukraine war - the OeNB has numerous securities with very low interest rates in its balance sheet. These bring little money for the central bank. On the liabilities side, however, the central bank must pay higher interest rates to commercial banks for their deposits with the central bank due to the increased interest rate level since 2022.

Von OeNB bezahlte Zinsen sechsmal so hoch wie Zinseinnahmen

"Die von der OeNB an Kreditinstitute gezahlten Zinsen betrugen im Geschäftsjahr 2024 das Sechsfache der erwirtschafteten Zinserträge aus den geldpolitischen Wertpapier-Ankaufprogrammen", so Stiftinger weiter. Die Einlagen österreichischer Banken bei der OeNB lagen im Vorjahr im Jahresdurchschnitt bei 87 Mrd. Euro und wurden im Schnitt mit 3,7 Prozent verzinst. Demgegenüber standen 107 Mrd. Euro an Wertpapieren, die die Notenbank 2024 zu geldpolitischen Zwecken hielt.

Die durch die frühere ultralockere EZB-Politik stark angestiegene Bilanzsumme wurde 2024 wieder etwas abgebaut. Zum Jahresende stand die Bilanzsumme bei 237 Mrd. Euro, das waren um 4 Prozent oder 10 Mrd. Euro weniger als im Jahr davor. OeNB-Gouverneur Robert Holzmann verwies darauf, dass die Nationalbank ihrem Geschäft auch mit einem Bilanzverlust nachgehen kann. "Ob eine Zentralbank Gewinne oder Verluste macht, ist ein nachrangiges Ergebnis ihres Mandats, die Preisstabilität auf mittlere Frist zu gewährleisten", sagte Holzmann. Auch Stiftinger betonte bei der Pressekonferenz am Dienstag, dass die Verluste "ganz bewusst in Kauf genommen" wurden um die Inflation zu bekämpfen und die Preise zu stabilisieren.

Bund geht wegen OeNB-Bilanzverlust wieder leer aus

Für den Bund fällt wegen des negativen Ergebnisses heuer das dritte Jahr in Folge keine Gewinnausschüttung ab. Die OeNB rechnet jedoch damit, dass es nun wieder bergauf geht. Nach dem Ende der Anleihen-Ankaufprogramme der EZB reifen viele Wertpapiere nun ab und werden nicht erneut veranlagt. Die Bilanzsumme sollte damit weiter zurückgehen. Danach seien auch wieder Gewinne zu erwarten. Bis die Anleihen vollständig abgereift seien, dürfte es aber noch viele Jahre dauern. "Es gibt ein starkes Abreifen bis zum Jahr 2031, da werden sie ungefähr um zwei Drittel zurückgegangen sein", so Stiftinger. Bis 2037 sollte der Rückgang in etwa 90 Prozent betragen. Den letzten Abbau werde man erst im Jahr 2051 sehen.

Positiv sei für die OeNB auch, dass das Vermögen die Verluste deutlich übertreffe, so die Vize-Gouverneurin. Im Vorjahr sei der Wert der Goldbestände um ein Drittel gestiegen. Der Bestand selbst ist jedoch seit 2007 unverändert und beträgt rund 280 Tonnen. Die OeNB hat keinerlei Ambitionen, Teile ihrer Goldbestände zu verkaufen. Das sei "keineswegs unsere Absicht, werden wir niemals tun", sagte Stiftinger. Denn Gold sei ein großer Stabilitätsanker und die OeNB sei nicht auf kurzfristige Wertsteigerungen ausgerichtet. Die Goldbestände machten im Vorjahr rund 64 Prozent des Vermögens der OeNB aus. Weitere 22 Prozent stammten aus Staatsanleihen und je 7 Prozent aus Unternehmensanleihen und Aktien.

OeNB für durchsetzbare Annahmepflicht von Bargeld

Eine wichtige Aufgabe der OeNB sei darüber hinaus die Sicherstellung der Bargeldversorgung. Bei der Pressekonferenz am Dienstag plädierte OeNB-Direktor Eduard Schock für eine durchsetzbare Annahmepflicht von Bargeld. 94 Prozent der österreichischen Bevölkerung nützten nach wie vor Bargeld und die vermehrte Ablehnung von Bargeldzahlungen von Händlern und Unternehmen gefährde die Wahlfreiheit zwischen den Zahlungsmitteln. Von 2020 bis 2024 sei der Prozentsatz der Betriebe, die Bargeld ablehnen, von 6 auf 9 Prozent gestiegen. Vor diesem Hintergrund sei auch die flächendeckende Versorgung mit Bargeld über Bankomaten weiterhin notwendig. Dazu wurde bereits vor über einem Jahr eine Vereinbarung zwischen den heimischen Banken und dem Gemeindebund getroffen.

Den Bankensektor sieht OeNB-Direktor Thomas Steiner indessen in resilienter Verfassung. Profitabilität und Kapitalisierung seien solide aufgestellt, die Kreditqualität verschlechtere sich allerdings. Vor allem in Österreich sei ein Anstieg der NPL-Quoten (non-performing loans/NPL) zu sehen, in den CEE-Töchtern laufe es dagegen besser. Herausforderungen für den Bankensektor und dessen Stabilität seien das politische und ökonomische Umfeld sowie Cyberrisiken und Digitalisierung.

(APA/Red)

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