Originally, the election in Vienna was supposed to take place in the fall. However, soon after the start of the blue-black coalition negotiations at the federal level, Mayor Michael Ludwig (SPÖ), together with his deputy Christoph Wiederkehr (Neos), announced that the municipal council election would be held on April 27. It was about ensuring stable conditions, he explained. Wiederkehr was even more explicit: It seemed certain that with Herbert Kickl, "a blue Chancellor" would be in office: "This is a storm that is brewing." Therefore, Vienna must be made weatherproof.
In reality, party tactical considerations were decisive: Vienna has a rather center-left electorate. With a blue-black coalition under Kickl and an "Orbanization of Austria" and all that comes with it, it might have formed a counter-movement from which the Social Democrats, but also Neos and Greens, would have benefited.
However, the calculation does not add up. On the contrary. Kickl remains in opposition, and it is very likely that there will be a government cooperation between ÖVP and SPÖ. Worse for Ludwig: His party will have to support unpopular measures for budget consolidation. For example, an increase in the health insurance contribution for pensioners, who form an important voter group for the Social Democrats, is being discussed.
Instead of a tailwind, the SPÖ might face headwinds in the Vienna election. Maintaining more than 40 percent will be difficult. This also raises uncertainty about whether the red-pink majority will remain and whether Ludwig can continue the coalition with the Neos. He might have to include the Greens. Even if it hurts, they oppose, for example, the Lobau Tunnel, which he is determined to build. In a word: It would be a tough game.
At least: There is a silver lining for Ludwig. The Freedom Party suffered an incredible drop in the election five years ago. They lost almost 24 percentage points and ended up at seven percent. They will regain some of that now, but not all, as of today. According to surveys, they could gain 16 percentage points. However, they would not reach their best times. Reason: Their leader Dominik Nepp is not Heinz-Christian Strache. His predecessor was a serious opponent for the SPÖ in the 2010s, who even had hopes of becoming mayor at times.
Yes, there was a time when Blue-Black in the Vienna City Hall was not completely unrealistic. But that is history. Also because the ÖVP is in free fall. No wonder: Karl Mahrer, their leader, poorly imitates the Freedom Party. Nobody needs that. And now he is also indicted in the "Wienwert" case. Like Ludwig's comrade Ernst Nevrivy, the district chairman of Donaustadt.
Johannes Huber runs the blog dieSubstanz.at – Analyses and Backgrounds on Politics
This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.