Experts Warn: Warm Year 2024 Will Not Remain an Isolated Case

This is not an outlier, but with over 99 percent probability, an indication of having entered a decades-long period with such an average temperature increase, calculated an Austrian-German expert team. Their study was published in the journal "Nature Climate Change".

Greenhouse gas emissions must therefore be rapidly and drastically reduced to keep the Paris climate goals within reach, according to the researchers. They used computer models to calculate how likely it is that the first single year with 1.5 degrees of warming heralds a 20-year period with such an average temperature increase under various emission scenarios.

Over 1.5 Degrees Global Warming: Previous Year Is Not an Isolated Case

In the currently most likely scenario with moderate efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, this would almost certainly be the case, reports the team led by Emanuele Bevacqua from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig. With more vigorous reduction of emissions according to the "1.5-degree path" or "2-degree path", the probability could at least be reduced to 75 percent that the Earth has already entered a 20-year period with 1.5 degrees of average warming in the previous year.

Recent history also suggests that the warm year 2024 will not remain an isolated case, according to the researchers, including Carl-Friedrich Schleussner from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg (NÖ). The first years with temperature increases of 0.6 to one degree Celsius also always fell into the first 20-year periods where such average warmings were achieved.

(APA/Red)

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