It is said that leaders can only lose big in times like these. For example, the Lower Austrian governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner liked to tell this after "her" state election two years ago, in which "her" People's Party had to give up almost ten percentage points and for the first time in history landed at less than 40 percent (at 39.9 percent, to be exact). Former Chancellor and ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer also liked to claim this after the National Council election at the end of September, as did the Styrian former governor and ÖVP chairman Christopher Drexler after "his" state election at the end of November. Both also had to take responsibility for crushing defeats and therefore had to withdraw in the end. Mikl-Leitner is still in office. For now.
The Burgenland governor and SPÖ chairman Hans Peter Doskozil has now disproved this narrative in the context of "his" state election. It is possible: leaders do not have to plummet in popularity in times like these. They can maintain not exactly 50, but certainly over 45 percent.
This is a signal with far-reaching consequences. First: Governors used to be fondly referred to as provincial emperors. Doskozil is the last of them. No one else could maintain such dominance in their own country.
This exacerbates the crisis of the ÖVP, which was the case for much of the Second Republic. For example, in Lower Austria. Especially there, it is now bitter for them to be shown in black and white what is possible with suitable leadership. Johanna Mikl-Leitner obviously does not provide this. In other words: If her party also suffers a debacle in the municipal elections next Sunday, she is on the ropes. There will be more calls than ever in her party for a caliber like Doskozil.
Secondly: Doskozil leads his country quite populistically, is left-wing in many respects in the sense of a strong state that takes care of (almost) everything and rather right-wing when it comes to asylum and migration. This scores points because Burgenland is what it is: rural. This appeals to a rural population.
SPÖ federal party leader Andreas Babler may turn up his nose and want nothing to do with Doskozil: But he himself has nothing comparable to show. The National Council election showed that he is rather lost in the countryside with his course.
This calls for consequences: Doskozil is not only the last provincial emperor, but also the last Social Democrat who is successful outside the cities. This makes him strong within the party. Whether Babler likes it or not. In other words: Either he can arrange himself with Doskozil, somehow make it clear in the next few months that he too is arriving in the countryside - or go. It would prove that he's not up to the task for the Social Democrats.
Thirdly: The Freedom Party has indeed made massive gains in Burgenland, and is mathematically by far the biggest election winner. But because of Doskozil, they did not get beyond around 23 percent. Of course: It is still a lot. However, the dream of their top candidate Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) - and of course Herbert Kickl's - would have been that a blue-black coalition becomes possible in Burgenland. This is not the case. It shows that the Blues cannot just clean up and is a small warning for them: It is not a law of nature that they rise almost infinitely far and wide.
By the way, it is bitter for Hofer: He, who almost became Federal President in 2016 and would have liked to become President of the National Council in 2024, may become a simple member of the state parliament - at least if Doskozil decides for a coalition with ÖVP or the Greens. That would be a very deep fall.
Johannes Huber runs the blog dieSubstanz.at – Analyses and Backgrounds on Politics
This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.