Alarming AI Predictions on the Climate Crisis

Europe is experiencing a faster warming than the global average: In 2023, the temperature was already 2.3 degrees higher - globally, the increase was around 1.48 degrees according to data from the Copernicus Climate Service. The 1.5-degree target could be exceeded for the first time this year.

AI Predictions: Climate Crisis Could Progress Faster

In most other regions of the world, global warming is likely to progress faster than many previous simulations have suggested, according to the new evaluation. The AI used for the analysis learns from ten global climate models, and measurement data from recent years refine the predictions, as the team led by Elizabeth Barnes from Colorado State University in Fort Collins reports in the journal "Environmental Research Letters". "AI is becoming an incredibly powerful tool for reducing uncertainty in future forecasts," said Barnes. The socioeconomic path SSP3-7.0 from the IPCC's status report was used as a basis. This scenario assumes that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise significantly in a world marked by conflicts and nationalism. The observed temperature anomalies from 2023 were used to define the current climate state.

Numerous Regions with Significant Temperature Increase

Accordingly, by 2040 or earlier, the 1.5-degree threshold could be reached for all 34 regions considered, and even two degrees in 31 regions. In the evaluation for reaching three degrees above the pre-industrial average, 26 out of 34 regions crossed the threshold in 2060, including the four regions in Europe. Previous predictions for a global average temperature at this scenario and at this time were below three degrees. Another study using AI has also found that global warming is likely to progress faster than calculated in many previous simulations. Temperatures two or three degrees above the average for the period 1850 to 1899 are likely to be reached much earlier than widely assumed.

1.5 Degree Target Practically Unattainable According to AI Predictions

The global goal of limiting warming to as close to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels as possible is now practically certain to be unattainable, according to the evaluation. There is also a high risk that global warming will exceed the two-degree mark, even if humanity achieves a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to zero by the 2050s - which represents the most optimistic scenario widely used in climate modelling. Previous studies had concluded that global warming could likely be kept below two degrees in this case. Together with Noah Diffenbaugh from Stanford University, Barnes used AI to investigate how different paths to net-zero emissions affect temperature rise for the study presented in the "Geophysical Research Letters". If the world achieves net-zero emissions by 2050, the warmest single year of this century will most likely be at least half a degree hotter than 2023, the warmest year on record so far. For a scenario in which emissions decline too slowly to achieve net-zero emissions by 2100, Diffenbaugh and Barnes found that the warmest year worldwide will most likely be three degrees warmer than the pre-industrial baseline scenario.

Climate Crisis with Extreme Impacts on Humans and Ecosystems

The researchers emphasize that climate change will have major impacts in the coming decades, even if all efforts and investments in reducing greenhouse gas emissions are as successful as possible. "There is a real risk that people and ecosystems will be exposed to climate conditions that are much more extreme than what they are currently prepared for," said Diffenbaugh. Experts consider it practically certain that this year will surpass the last as the warmest year. Global average temperatures are expected to be more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, i.e. before humans began burning fossil fuels on a large scale. However, the Paris 1.5-degree target for mitigating the climate crisis is not yet considered missed, as longer-term average values are taken into account. At the 2015 World Climate Conference in Paris, countries worldwide agreed to limit global warming to below two degrees, but preferably to 1.5 degrees. The values have high symbolic value, but according to experts, there is no clear definition for the politically set thresholds yet.

Fewer Reflective Clouds at Low Altitudes

A team led by Helge Gößling from the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven recently explained in the journal "Science" that there have been unusually high values for absorbed solar radiation. One reason for this is that there were fewer reflective clouds at low altitudes. Satellite records for the past year showed the lowest value for low clouds since 2000. According to the scientists, it is not yet clear what is causing the reduction in low clouds. It is possible that climate change itself could contribute significantly to this, they said. In this case, a stronger future warming than previously assumed can be expected.

(APA/Red)

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